thailand rice interventionAs per the sources, it has been expected by the Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) that the Thai rice export prices, which are currently slightly below the Vietnam prices, would increase by about 10-15% in the first quarter of 2016 and another 10-15% in the second quarter if the dry spell continues. The Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) told reporters that the government is expecting output from this year’s main crop to decline about 2% to 26 million tons, and that from the off-season to decline by over half to around 4 million tons. Output from next year’s main crop may be impacted as well, if the drought conditions continue.

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Further in this regards, it has been expecting the global rice production to decline by about 1% and he also noted that the impact of the dry weather is expected to become clearer by the middle of next year, particularly after Indonesia’s harvest season in April, when we will see how much Indonesia’s rice production will fall. TERA noted that the major importers such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Middle Eastern countries are concerned about their falling outputs and are forced to maintain reserve stocks to prevent price hikes locally. He also noted that Thailand’s rice exports are expected to reach around 9-10 million tons because of lower production. The official also noted that the government still has rice stocks of around 13 million tons, of which around 7-8 million tons are of good quality and can be retained for domestic consumption and to maintain state buffer stocks.