Poor monsoon conditions in India will give Thailand an opportunity to become world’s top most rice exporter and offload bulging stockpiles.

The Thai Rice was being sold at heavy discounts. But if the Indian rice export would fall down this will allow the south East Asian countries to export their rice at high prices curbing losses on the stocks built up under a costly state intervention scheme.

Kiattisak Kallayasirivat, managing-director of Bangkok-based Novel Agritrading Co Ltd. Said that it’s a fantastic opportunity for the Thailand to export its rice at competitive prices

In the goverence of previous PM of Thailand Yingluck Shinawatra who started the Rice-Paddy Pledging scheme have aggressively sold from stockpiles.Thai Rice would may be increase comparing to Vietnam

Thailand plans to export 500,000-600,000 tonnes of rice a month from August. At that rate, it will take about three years to sell the 18 million tonnes built under the rice-buying scheme introduced by the Yingluck government that was ousted in May because of finding Yingluck Shinawatra guilty.

The country sold 5% broken rice from its stocks for US$360 (RM1,146.06) per tonne, on a free on board (FOB) basis, earlier this year but now a similar variety of old-crop rice is being offered at around US$395 per tone. This, however, is still short of the estimated cost of 22,000 baht (RM2,178.11) per tonne that the ousted government incurred on buying paddy from farmers, milling and storage.

Duangporn Rodphaya, director general of Thai Commerce Ministry’s Department of Foreign Trade said that poor rainfall in India may allow Thai rice exports to10 million tonnes this year, near a record 10.6 million tonnes sold in 2011 cutting Indian supply.

India slumpped Thailand two years ago to become the world’s top rice exporter as the intervention scheme priced Thai rice out of the export market and as Delhi lifted a four-year ban on non-basmati rice sales in 2011 to finish the stocks.

But India’s output could be hit this year as rains, crucial for water hungry rice, were 40% below average in the first six weeks of the June-September monsoon season.

Indian exports have already been slowing due to aggressive sales by Thailand and Vietnam, said B.V. Krishna Rao, managing director at Pattabhi Agro Foods Pvt Ltd, a leading non-basmati rice exporter in India. In the year ended March 31, India exported a  record 10.86 million tonnes rice. Rao estimates overseas sales will drop to 8 million tonnes in 2014/15.

In the June quarter, India exported 1 million tonnes of non-basmati rice, dealers estimated, down almost 30% on a year earlier. The country is offering 5% broken rice at around US$425 per tonne FOB, up from US$410-US$415 last month.

Indian farmers had planted paddy on 8.64 million hectares as on July 11, compared to 11 million hectares a year ago.

“Certainly Thai exporters will gain from India’s loss. The quantum depends on how monsoon pans out in next two months,” said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trading firm.