For years, rice has been an major part of the cuisine across Asian nations. China and India are two of the world’s largest producers of rice producing 140 million tonnes and 105 million tonnes respectively.Other big producer of rice are Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Pakistan. Major exporters of rice include Thailand, India, Vietnam and Pakistan while major importers include China, Iran, Indonesia, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia and several African countries.
For the year 2013-14 the rice production is expected to be balanced, but world rice trade is expected to be up by 5 per cent to reach a new target of 40 million tonnes in 2014.This increase in price would definitely boost buying interest among key Asian importers.
Even though overall supplies of rice are expected to increase,but the available quantity of rice is tighten ahead of the next harvest, .but the supplies in the top exporting countries like India, Thailand will remain comfortable.
El Nino event in the second half of this year also threaten the comfortable supply of rice . At this point of time, the timing and intensity of El Nino event is unclear.
Government policies also impact the rice supply.These policies must be monitored so that proper disposal and storage policies could be made.
Liquidation of public stocks in Thailand for more than the last three months has already down the export market prices; and the country may be able to have enough increase in export trade in 2014. Vietnam may also be able to expand export sales.
This will affect the volume of India’s rice shipments during the current year. In 2012 and 2013, India was the world’s top exporter with shipment volumes close to 10 million tonnes. But it seems that,that position of India may perhaps not be sustained this year.
However, details of pricing and marketing plan are not unveiled yet. Basmati Rice export is expected to undisturbed . Looking for future the rice production globally is expected to continue rising but at deceasing rate.
Although China’s share in global rice production and its consumption in coming years may decrease, Indian consumption over the next five years is expected to rise proportionally also because of the food security law that force sale of rice at highly subsidized rates to a majority of the population.
In this situation, production growth rate should be increased so that it can match with the consumption rate .Exportation is required to slow down. Land constraints, water shortage and climate change are likely to impact rice cultivation and these negative factors need to be monitored immediately.