According to the forecast, the government of India has revealed that 2015-16 kharif (June – December) rice production is at around 90.6 million tons, which is slightly less from around 90.86 million tons of production in 2014-15.Further, it has been stated that total rice planted area to the 2015-16 kharif rice crop stood at around 36.841 million hectares as of September 11, 2015 which is slightly more from around 36.651 million hectares planted during the same time last year. In addition, planting operations have been so far satisfactory despite concerns of weaker rains in the monsoon season (June-September) due to an El Nino weather pattern.
As per report released by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) that it has forecasted that the El Nino pattern to reach to moderate to a strong one during the monsoon season (June – September). On this issue, it has also been forecasted a 16% deficit in the rainfall during the second half (August-September) of the monsoon season (June-September). Due to this slight reduction in kharif rice output, it may push up both domestic and export prices in the next few months.
Furthermore, the Indian government forecasts that the total kharif food grain output is at around 124.05 million tons. It has been estimated that 2014-15 rice production is likely to decline about 2% y/y to around 104.8 million tons due to below average rains. The decline may also be due to that during the kharif main rice crop planting process (June – September 2014) in many key rice growing areas and unseasonal rains and hailstorms during February and March 2015.